Russia is considering conventional ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv’s city center and other Ukrainian urban areas following the collapse of peace negotiations and a series of escalations in the conflict. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Kremlin officials are actively planning such attacks, citing three sources close to the Russian government.
The potential strikes would mark a significant escalation after Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian economic targets, including the Perm refinery, Russia’s seventh-largest by volume. The refinery halted operations following a drone strike on August 21, according to Reuters. Ukrainian drone strikes have also targeted oil infrastructure and logistics networks across Russia throughout the summer, prompting public warnings from Moscow.
President Vladimir Putin signaled a tougher stance on August 22 during a state television interview, stating that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian economic sectors would provoke a response. "The Kyiv regime set out to damage our economy. What did it do? It opened this Pandora's box itself. Well then, expect a response targeting your most sensitive economic sectors," Putin said.
Diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled. U.S.-mediated Geneva peace talks in February ended without a breakthrough, and a summit between Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska last August failed to yield progress. Meetings between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio in the Philippines in July also produced no immediate prospect of resuming formal negotiations, according to the Kremlin.
The escalation comes amid heightened geopolitical friction. CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow on Tuesday, meeting with Russian intelligence counterparts but not President Putin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed. Peskov stated that contacts had occurred through security channels but emphasized there had been no meetings with Putin.
Trump, in a radio interview cited by Reuters, described Ratcliffe’s visit as "semi-routine" but suggested potential progress, saying, "Now something may come out of it. We're working very hard to get that war ended."
Market reactions reflected the tensions. Brent crude settled around $88.58 on Tuesday, down more than 3% for the session, while defense stocks such as Lockheed Martin edged higher. Shares of Kyivstar Group, Ukraine’s largest telecommunications provider, declined amid the intensifying conflict.
A recent U.S. intelligence assessment cited by the Atlantic Council warned that the Kremlin may prepare a limited attack on a NATO member country within months, though no specific targets were identified. The Perm refinery attack and subsequent halt in operations underscore the economic stakes for Russia, which has faced repeated disruptions to its oil and gas infrastructure.
The potential for further escalation remains high, with some Russian officials reportedly concluding that Putin could eventually resort to tactical nuclear weapons as a last measure if conventional strikes fail to deter Ukrainian actions.
