Analysts at Gordon Haskett have revised calendar 2026 earnings and revenue estimates for 22 restaurant companies following second-quarter results, with mixed outcomes across the sector.
Of the 22 companies tracked, 12 saw their 2026 Street estimates either maintained or increased, while 10 faced downward revisions. Nine companies received upward adjustments, three saw no change, and 10 experienced cuts. Only four chains—The Cheesecake Factory, Bloomin' Brands, BJ's Restaurants, and Starbucks—had estimates raised across all metrics for 2026.
Conversely, six companies faced downward revisions across all 2026 estimates: Papa Johns, Wendy's, Jack in the Box, Portillo's, Wingstop, and Yum! Brands. Over the trailing 12 months, 14 of the 22 companies saw Street estimates lowered, with El Pollo Loco, Dutch Bros, Brinker International, and The Cheesecake Factory among those receiving upward revisions.
The restaurant sector posted a 6% average share price gain over the 12 months ended August 24, 2026, trailing the S&P 500’s 18% gain. Performance varied by segment: casual dining names outperformed, while fast-casual and pizza chains underperformed. Same-store sales estimate revisions showed the strongest correlation with share price moves, with a 0.68 correlation over the period, compared to a 0.67 average across EPS, EBITDA, revenue, and same-store sales.
Gordon Haskett identified Dutch Bros, Domino’s Pizza, and Wingstop as having the greatest divergence between estimate trends and share price performance, viewing all three as undervalued.
