Oil Falls as Asia Crude Imports Post Highest Volume Since Iran War Began

Oil prices declined Thursday as traders weighed data showing Asia on track to import the most crude since the start of the US-Iran conflict, even as the region remains well short of normal supply levels.

Futures for international benchmark Brent crude for November delivery fell 0.52% to $102.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate November contracts dropped 0.34% to $91.85 per barrel.

Asia’s crude imports rose in September to 23.96 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 23.38 million bpd in August and the highest monthly figure since February, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler and cited by Reuters. The region’s purchases had plunged to a more-than-decade low of 19.15 million bpd in April as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were severely disrupted following the aerial and missile campaign launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28.

Despite the recovery, September inflows remain approximately 13% below the 27.55 million bpd average recorded across the three months leading up to the conflict, data show. Imports from the Middle East specifically totaled 12.56 million bpd in September, up from 11.66 million bpd in August but still roughly 3.53 million bpd below the pre-war average of 16.09 million bpd.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the United Nations General Assembly that the US and Israel are responsible for global instability and vowed Iran will continue fighting back "until our last breath," in a live-translated address. The US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran on February 28, after which Tehran threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carried about 20% of global crude and refined-product flows before the war.

The strait remains contested, with Iran occasionally striking vessels and the US Navy working to ensure safe passage for tankers from Persian Gulf exporters including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia ramped up tanker runs, loading up to 12 million barrels in a single day and moving cargo through the strait via ship-to-ship transfers off the coast of Oman.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has on multiple occasions claimed as much as 15 million bpd is leaving the Middle East, but tanker-tracking services have reported lower figures. Global crude imports from the Middle East totalled 14.7 million bpd in September — close to Wright’s claim but still around three million bpd below pre-war levels.

Compounding supply concerns, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was recently closed after a strike reportedly linked to Iraq, likely reducing Middle Eastern imports into October. The line has since been repaired and is operational again, potentially supporting a November recovery.

At China, the world’s largest crude importer, August purchases rose 6.2% to 8.93 million bpd from July, marking a second consecutive monthly gain after a June trough. However, August volumes remained about 2 million bpd below February’s level. Goldman Sachs expects China’s crude imports to rise by only about 600,000 bpd in the fourth quarter compared with the third.

The constrained crude flows are also evident in refined-product markets. Asia’s imports of light and middle distillates were forecast at 5.84 million bpd for September, up from 5.25 million bpd in August but still more than one million bpd below the 7.06 million bpd seen in the three months before the conflict. As a result, prices for diesel, jet fuel and gasoline remain at near-record premiums over Brent: Singapore gasoil, a benchmark for diesel, traded at $173.84 a barrel Wednesday, while gasoline was at $139.60, compared with typical pre-war premiums of $10–$20 per barrel above crude benchmarks.

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said markets remain sensitive to further monetary tightening, renewed Middle East escalation and this week’s US-China discussions on trade, AI and strategic supply chains.