National Bank Financial downgraded Nutrien from Outperform to Sector Perform, citing valuation as the stock’s advance since mid-July has reduced its discount to peers. The firm raised its price target to $77 from $74, noting the gap between Nutrien’s current price and its valuation multiple has closed.
Barclays separately reduced its price target for Nutrien to $78 from $81 while maintaining an above-average rating. The bank also trimmed its adjusted EBITDA estimates by about 6% on average for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more conservative outlook on the fertilizer producer’s earnings trajectory.
Nutrien’s shares have gained roughly 14% since National Bank initiated coverage on July 12, adding to a 7% weekly gain and a 22% advance over the past year. The stock now trades near $74–$75, a range that previously supported the Outperform rating before valuation multiples expanded toward peer averages.
National Bank’s valuation framework shows Nutrien at about 7.0x estimated 2027 EBITDA and 7.1x mid-cycle EBITDA of roughly $6.3 billion, up from 6.1x and 6.3x at coverage start. The company’s discount to a peer group of fertilizer, chemical and agricultural retail companies narrowed to 7% from 16%, as the group’s average multiple rose to 7.7x from about 7.2x.
Barclays’ reduced target follows a 6% cut to its adjusted EBITDA estimates for the current and next year, while National Bank’s target increase reflects a modest upward revision to its valuation assumptions. Nutrien reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $10.81 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s $10.70 billion estimate, though adjusted EPS came in at $2.61, below the $2.89 forecast.
The company’s first-half adjusted EBITDA grew 6% year-over-year, while operating cash flow advanced 12%. Nutrien also raised its 2026 potash sales volume guidance to a range of 14.2 million to 14.8 million tons and increased its share buyback program to about CAD 75 million per month in the third quarter.
Nutrien’s valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 14.97 and a PEG ratio of 0.19, with an estimated 2026–2027 average free cash flow yield of about 7%, down from 9% previously.
