Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of ArcelorMittal SA with an overweight rating, citing expected benefits from stricter European and North American trade policies and disciplined decarbonization investments.
The bank set a price target of €70 for ArcelorMittal’s Amsterdam-listed shares, implying roughly 14% upside from the August 20 closing price of €61.16. For the company’s US-listed ADR, the target was set at $82, also representing about 14% upside from the August 20 close of $72.20.
Analysts projected steady steel shipment growth, with volumes rising from 54 million tons in 2025 to 57.3 million tons by 2027. EBITDA forecasts followed a similar trajectory, climbing from $6.54 billion in 2025 to $11.12 billion in 2027.
Morgan Stanley highlighted European trade safeguards and carbon protections as catalysts for improved earnings visibility, with the full impact expected to materialize between 2027 and 2028. The bank also noted potential upside from faster demand recovery in key end markets and an accelerated share buyback program.
The firm emphasized ArcelorMittal’s operational leverage in a European earnings rebound while downplaying balance sheet and operational risks. The company’s phased decarbonization strategy was described as disciplined, limiting execution and financial exposure.
Downside risks include weaker steel demand in China, which could increase export volumes and pressure global prices, as well as further deterioration in end markets compressing margins. Unexpected large-scale investments in new regions were also flagged as a potential risk factor.
