Moderna’s shares surged 142.74% to $152.83 by 1:54 PM ET on Tuesday, driven by the first positive Phase 3 readout for an mRNA cancer therapy, according to trial data. The rally, which followed a 176.97% intraday gain, lifted the biotech’s market capitalization to $25.1 billion.
The advance was fueled in part by a short squeeze, with bears facing roughly $4.8 billion in mark-to-market losses as shorted shares declined by nearly $100 each. Estimates attributed about 60% of the move to the squeeze, while the remaining 40% stemmed from the trial’s positive outcome. Short interest stood at 13.5% of the free-float, among the highest for large-cap stocks.
The catalyst was the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157 (also referred to as intismeran autogene), used in combination with Merck’s Keytruda. The study, which enrolled 1,137 melanoma patients, met both its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival.
Analysts at William Blair upgraded Moderna to Outperform, while Brookline maintained a bullish stance with a $135 price target. InvestingPro’s fair value estimate at the time stood at $57.43, implying a 166% premium to its model value. Moderna’s negative P/E ratio of -8.0x reflected its unprofitable status.
Brookline also projected global sales of mRNA-4157 could reach $4.67 billion by 2030. Technical indicators underscored the extreme momentum, with the daily RSI at 91.1 and the 1-hour RSI at 93.1, both in overbought territory. The Commodity Channel Index hit 648.5, while the MACD signaled a bullish trend at +8.27.
