Mizuho Securities upgraded Air Liquide to outperform on Monday, citing an expected 17% upside to a new €200 price target as the industrial gases group narrows its return-on-capital gap with rival Linde.
The upgrade follows an assessment that Air Liquide has made progress in efficiency gains and margin recovery, with adjusted return-on-capital narrowing to 6.7% in 2025 from 10% in 2021. Analyst John Roberts highlighted the company’s progress in closing the performance differential while maintaining a focus on high-growth segments.
Air Liquide’s electronics business, which accounts for roughly 10% of sales, is expanding at an 8% to 9% annual rate and now represents about half of the group’s investment backlog in the first half of 2026, up from around 40% previously. Roberts noted that the segment’s rapid turnover—driven by daily delivery requirements—supports sustained investment momentum.
Mizuho also pointed to efficiency improvements totaling €497 million in 2024, €631 million in 2025 and €299 million in the first half of 2026. The firm expects margin improvement targets of at least 40 basis points annually beyond the group’s 2027 goal of 21.8%, signaling further operational leverage.
The bullish outlook comes ahead of Air Liquide’s capital markets day scheduled for October 5, where the company is expected to provide updated strategic and financial guidance. Linde, another major player in the sector, is also rated outperform by Mizuho, underscoring the firm’s constructive view of the industrial gases industry’s structural dynamics.
