Mizuho Securities has identified three structural supports that may allow the latest cryptocurrency advance to sustain itself beyond typical short-term cycles. In a note dated August 25, 2026, senior equity analyst Dan Dolev argues the rally is being driven by spot demand and exchange-traded fund inflows rather than leveraged positioning, a shift from prior episodes.
The first signal is reduced leverage in derivatives markets. Open interest denominated in currency fell to a one-month low after the initial surge and has not rebounded, indicating lower systemic risk compared with past rallies. Dolev noted that ‘continued gains are being underpinned by spot and ETF demand rather than leveraged long positions.’
Second, exchange volumes remain at multi-year lows, suggesting a late-consolidation phase. Trading activity has stabilized at depressed levels for three years, raising the question of whether ETF-led accumulation will pull retail investors back to centralized exchanges or whether ETFs will continue absorbing that demand without a pickup in on-exchange turnover.
The third factor is the renewed strength in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Funds captured approximately $1.9 billion in the week ended August 22, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025. Inflows occurred on five consecutive days, led by the IBIT product.
Among listed companies positioned to benefit, Robinhood Markets is highlighted as the most direct lever on spot market share gains. The brokerage reached a record 40% retail spot market share in the second quarter of 2026, its highest level in several quarters, and maintains the highest operating leverage among peers alongside increased activity per active account.
eToro is viewed as a contrarian value opportunity after lagging the rally and trading near 52-week lows. The platform’s price-to-earnings ratio has compressed below 10 times following a post-earnings decline, while active accounts rose 18% to 4.28 million. Its non-U.S., multi-asset model differentiates it from U.S.-focused peers.
Bitgo received an Outperform rating, with analysts citing its infrastructure and custody business as a key beneficiary of institutional accumulation routed through ETF structures, irrespective of whether retail capital returns to exchanges.
