LyondellBasell’s stock has outperformed Dow by a wide margin in 2026, rising 45.6% year-to-date compared with a 30.4% gain for Dow, widening their performance spread by roughly 15 percentage points.
The valuation gap between the two chemical heavyweights has also deepened. LyondellBasell trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 times versus Dow’s 12.6 times, while its free cash flow yield stands at 7.7% against Dow’s 6.6%. Analysts estimate LyondellBasell’s fair value upside at 16.2%, nearly double Dow’s 9.2%. Gross profit margins are also structurally higher for LyondellBasell at 12.9%, compared with 9.8% for Dow.
Both companies remain in a cyclical downturn, with trailing earnings negative and net losses reported in fiscal 2025. Dow’s EBITDA has contracted 75% from $10.9 billion in 2021 to $2.7 billion in 2025, while LyondellBasell’s EBITDA declined 74% over the same period, from $8.6 billion to $2.2 billion. Dow posted a net loss of $2.6 billion in 2025, versus a $0.8 billion loss for LyondellBasell.
Despite LyondellBasell’s valuation advantages, Dow retains certain strengths. Its dividend yield of 4.5% exceeds LyondellBasell’s 4.2%, and it trades at a deeper discount to book value at 1.4 times. Dow’s larger historical EBITDA relative to market capitalization suggests higher operating leverage, meaning a rebound in chemical spreads could produce a sharper earnings recovery for Dow than for LyondellBasell.
As of August 25, 2026, LyondellBasell’s shares were trading at $63.45 with a market capitalization of $21.1 billion, while Dow’s shares stood at $30.74 with a market cap of $22.7 billion. Both companies carry elevated debt levels, with Dow’s debt-to-equity at 122.5% and LyondellBasell’s at 134.3%.
The contrasting positioning highlights divergent market expectations: LyondellBasell appears priced for a more conservative rebound, while Dow’s valuation embeds a steeper potential upside if cyclical conditions improve.
