JPMorgan has outlined a 30,000 to 70,000 jobs-added range for the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, describing it as the 'goldilocks zone' that would support the Federal Reserve's policy deliberations at its September 16 meeting.
The bank's forecast comes as the U.S. labor market approaches full employment while inflation remains elevated, according to comments from former Fed governor Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. JPMorgan emphasized that the Consumer Price Index release, due before the jobs data, will carry greater weight in shaping market expectations than the payrolls figure itself.
Analysts highlighted a market dynamic in which positive economic data could trigger declines in equities. A stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls print would likely lift bond yields, pressuring stock valuations as increased employment fuels consumer spending and business expansion. The bank characterized this feedback loop as self-reinforcing, particularly against a backdrop of loose financial conditions noted by Warsh.
Conversely, a significant shortfall in job gains—such as another negative reading—could revive concerns over stagflation, JPMorgan warned.
