Jefferies downgraded Dutch energy technology firm Alfen N.V. to hold from buy on Tuesday, citing higher-than-expected personnel costs and fading momentum in the electric vehicle charging segment.
The brokerage cut its price target to €14 from €18, while sharply reducing its 2026 EBITDA estimate by 32% to €18.8 million, which now trails the consensus by 13%. Revenue for 2026 is projected at €466.8 million, up 2% from prior estimates and ahead of the €458.9 million consensus, supported by growth in the Smart Grids business. Jefferies also lowered its 2027 EBITDA forecast by 8% to €33.3 million, though it expects personnel costs to normalize.
Alfen’s 2026 guidance remains unchanged at revenue of €435 million to €475 million, implying a 4% to 7% EBITDA margin. The company’s first-half 2026 results showed adjusted EBITDA up 26% year-over-year to €16.4 million, with revenue rising 24% to €261.5 million. Operating cash flow increased by €25.7 million to €36.5 million, driven by a €23.1 million reduction in working capital, while the net cash position stood at €6.2 million.
Segment performance highlighted uneven growth. Smart Grids revenue grew 15% to €111.6 million, with second-quarter growth accelerating to 27% on stronger project activity. Energy Storage revenue surged 88% to €98.8 million, though second-half order backlog of €43 million suggests a 40% revenue decline in that period. Order intake in the segment dropped from €54 million in Q1 to €11 million in Q2. EV Charging revenue fell 17% to €51.1 million, reflecting a 12% volume decline and a 6% lower average selling price amid competitive pressure in the residential segment.
Alfen’s shares have gained 20% year-to-date, outpacing the 10% rise in the Euro Stoxx index. The stock trades at 15.8 times Jefferies’ 2026 EV/EBITDA estimate.
