J.M. Smucker reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings that exceeded consensus estimates, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.24, a 46.6% beat against the $2.21 forecast. The company attributed the outperformance to a $115 million tariff refund, which contributed $0.84 per share in the quarter. After reinvestment and associated costs, the full-year net benefit is projected at approximately $0.60 per share.
The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $10.50 to $11.00, surpassing the Street’s $10.05 estimate. Net debt to EBITDA improved to 2.9 times in the quarter, down from 3.8 times a year ago, as the company paid down roughly $230 million in debt and swung to positive free cash flow of $337.3 million, compared with a negative $94.9 million in the prior-year period.
The U.S. retail coffee segment delivered a 13% sales increase to $807.8 million, with segment profit up 124% and margins expanding by 1,840 basis points to 37.1%. Coffee volume is expected to decline at a low single-digit rate for the full year. Uncrustables sales grew 12%, with double-digit volume gains, and the brand is on track to surpass $1 billion in annual sales across more than 30,000 convenience stores. Full-year growth for Uncrustables was raised to a high single-digit rate, up from a previous mid-single-digit outlook.
The sweet baked snacks segment reported a 7% sales decline and a 13% drop in profit, reflecting portfolio simplification at Hostess, including a 25% reduction in SKUs. The segment is expected to decline at a low single-digit rate for the full year. Café Bustelo sales rose 23%, contributing an 8% volume increase.
Analysts reacted positively to the results. UBS raised its price target to $142 with a Buy rating, while JPMorgan lifted its target to $139 with an Overweight rating. Morgan Stanley, which had downgraded the stock earlier in 2026 to Equal-weight with a $105 target, remains the outlier. Over the past 90 days, six analysts revised EPS estimates upward, while four cut them.
J.M. Smucker’s stock reached a 52-week high of $134.85 following the earnings release. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2027 results in November 2026, with current estimates calling for adjusted EPS of $2.56 and a sales decline of 3% to 4%. A potential share buyback announcement is expected in the second half of fiscal 2027.
