India’s crude oil imports from Russia have declined sharply this month after reaching a record high in July, as disruptions to Russian export infrastructure and intensified competition from China reduced Moscow’s available barrels.
Imports of Russian oil averaged 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up from 2.7 million bpd in June and the highest monthly volume on record, according to vessel-tracking data from Kpler. This accounted for more than half of India’s total crude oil imports during the month.
In August, Indian purchases of Russian crude are expected to fall to roughly 2 million bpd, Sumit Ritolia, Manager of Modelling Refinery and Oil Markets at Kpler, told Bloomberg. He added that Indian imports from Russia are likely to stabilize at just above 2 million bpd in the near term.
The decline in Russian crude shipments to India reflects a combination of supply-side and demand-side pressures. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and export infrastructure have constrained Moscow’s ability to fully utilize available crude volumes, despite rising export capacity.
At the same time, China has increased its purchases of discounted Russian crude, further reducing the supply available to Indian refiners. In response, Indian state-controlled refiners have expanded sourcing from West Africa and the Americas to meet domestic demand, which is projected to rise in the coming months.
Indian refiners, particularly state-run entities, continue to prioritize spot purchases as term contracts face disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis and uncertainty around key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.
In recent weeks, Indian state refiners have accelerated spot crude acquisitions from West Africa amid tightening supply from the Middle East and heightened delivery risks.
