Goldman Sachs raised its wafer fabrication equipment spending outlook through 2028, forecasting a 29% increase in 2028 to $281 billion as demand from DRAM and leading-edge foundry segments accelerates.
The bank’s updated projections, based on second-quarter earnings data, call for global WFE spending of $150 billion in 2026, up 36% year-over-year, followed by $218 billion in 2027, a 45% increase. Within the broader WFE market, foundry equipment spending is expected to reach $109 billion by 2028, while DRAM equipment investment is projected at $97 billion in the same year.
Goldman cited near-term capacity constraints in DRAM and leading-edge foundry as primary drivers of the upward revision, with NAND and logic markets expected to contribute in the medium term. The bank maintained a constructive view on the DRAM industry, anticipating persistent capacity tightness through 2028 despite elevated spending levels.
Among global semiconductor equipment manufacturers, Goldman named Applied Materials as its top pick, citing the company’s fiscal third-quarter revenue growth of 15% sequentially and revenue guidance of $10.25 billion for the next quarter, which exceeded consensus estimates. Stifel and Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated positive ratings on the stock.
Lam Research was highlighted for its exposure to strengthening equipment cycles across multiple segments, after reporting record revenue of $6.72 billion and earnings per share of $1.82 for its fiscal fourth quarter, both surpassing analyst expectations.
ASML, the Dutch lithography equipment maker, was also recommended as demand for advanced EUV tools remains robust, with capacity nearly fully booked through the end of 2027. The company’s chief financial officer noted potential for further price increases on cutting-edge equipment.
Tokyo Electron, Japan’s leading equipment supplier, was included in the list following first-quarter results that beat earnings expectations despite revenue falling short of estimates. ASMI and BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI) were assigned Buy ratings, while Lasertec was cited for its guidance aligning with Morgan Stanley’s forecasts.
