Euro-area consumers increased their inflation expectations across all measured horizons in August, according to the European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey published on 18 September 2026, while outlooks for growth and income stayed broadly unchanged.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months held steady at 3.5%, the same as in July. However, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.0% from 2.9%, three-year inflation expectations climbed to 2.9% from 2.7%, and five-year expectations ticked up to 2.5% from 2.4%.
Uncertainty around near-term inflation expectations decreased compared with July but remained above levels seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the top quintile, and younger consumers aged 18-34 reported lower readings than older groups.
Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months were unchanged at 1.0%, with bottom-quintile households anticipating 1.7% growth compared with 0.7% among the top quintile. Perceived nominal spending growth over the prior 12 months rose slightly to 5.2% from 5.1%, while expected spending growth over the coming year remained flat at 3.6%.
Consumers' outlook for economic growth over the next 12 months stayed unchanged at -1.2%. On the labour market, the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead fell to 11.0% from 11.2%. Households in the bottom income quintile still projected the highest unemployment rate at 13.4%, while the top quintile expected 9.4%. The anticipated future unemployment rate remained only slightly above the currently perceived rate of 10.5%, pointing to a broadly stable labour market outlook.
In housing, expected home price growth over the next 12 months was unchanged at 3.4%. Mortgage interest rate expectations for 12 months ahead also held steady at 4.9%, with top-quintile households expecting 4.4% and bottom-quintile households 5.7%. The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit access over the previous 12 months declined relative to July, as did the net share expecting tighter conditions going forward.
The next release of the survey, covering September data collected between 6 and 24 August, is scheduled for 23 October 2026. The monthly survey covers approximately 19,000 adult consumers across 11 euro-area countries.
