Analysts at Gordon Haskett have revised same-store sales estimates for major dollar-store chains ahead of their upcoming earnings reports, signaling a divergent outlook for the sector. The firm raised its fiscal 2026 same-store sales projections for Dollar General to 3.0%, Dollar Tree to 4.0% and Five Below to 13.0%, while lowering its estimate for Ollie's Bargain Outlet to 0.0%.
The adjustments come ahead of a busy earnings week starting August 27, when Dollar Tree and Dollar General report results, followed by Ollie's Bargain Outlet and Five Below on September 2. Gordon Haskett also expects Ollie's to revise its full-year same-store sales guidance downward from 2.0% to a range of 0.0% to 1.0%.
Traffic trends have shown mixed signals across the sector. Monthly same-store traffic accelerated on a two-year basis for most chains during the quarter, though Five Below saw a slight deceleration. Dollar Tree's traffic improved each month, while Dollar General posted its strongest trends in June. Ollie's reported improved traffic over the past four to six weeks, though its second-quarter comparable sales fell by approximately 1.0% to 2.0%.
Analysts maintained a cautious stance on Dollar General and Dollar Tree, both rated Hold, citing concerns over price competition following Walmart's recent aggressive pricing moves. Dollar General's Hold rating reflects the need to monitor its price investment strategy, while Dollar Tree's neutral stance balances long-term risks from abandoning its $1.00 and $1.25 price points against near-term catalysts such as stock buybacks and shrink tailwinds.
Five Below retained a Buy rating, supported by its marketing campaigns and merchandising capabilities, while Ollie's carried an Accumulate rating despite the downgrade to its same-store sales outlook.
