Shares of Swiss-listed biotech company Cosmo have fallen more than 50% from their December 2025 peak following the announcement of what the company called a "breakthrough" study result for a new hair-loss treatment, even as several analysts continue to rate the stock a Buy.
The stock traded at 57.90 Swiss francs on September 23, well below the 124.50-franc high reached between December 2025 and March 2026, when it nearly doubled from 62.50 francs after Cosmo disclosed positive results for Clascoterone 5% topical solution in its study of male pattern baldness.
In both clinical trials, Cosmo reported statistically significant endpoints for hair count in the target area. One study recorded a relative improvement of 539% versus placebo, and the second showed a 168% relative improvement. Both studies also demonstrated a positive safety profile, the company said in its December 3, 2025 ad-hoc filing.
Cosmo issued a further update on April 3, 2026, noting that hair growth continued through the 12th month of treatment, while patients switched to placebo after the seventh month experienced a decline in hair count — reinforcing the need for ongoing therapy. No stock reaction followed that announcement.
The Milan-based biotech company is preparing regulatory filings in both markets. An application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is currently scheduled for early 2027, with a European marketing-authorisation submission expected in the second quarter of 2027, according to Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Nicolas Paulliac.
All five analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy, with an average price target of 125 Swiss francs. H.C. Wainwright assigned the highest target at 160 francs. Kepler Cheuvreux set its target at 123 francs, identifying the upcoming release of the full efficacy dataset as a key catalyst that could unlock a licensing deal and drive re-rating.
Jefferies analysts estimated the global revenue opportunity for Cosmo's male hair-loss therapy at up to $3 billion, contingent on securing a capable distribution partner by year-end. The overall hair-loss drugs market is estimated at roughly $20 billion, Jefferies noted, adding that patients often use multiple products simultaneously if they can afford them.
Competition is intensifying. US biotechs Absci and Veradermics have seen their shares rise approximately 180% each since the start of the year on progress with similar products. Novo Nordisk also announced plans to enter the hair-loss market on Wednesday.
Cosmo posted revenue of an estimated €106 million for the current fiscal year and pays a dividend yielding 3.8%. Consensus estimates call for 2026 profit of €1.2 million and free cash flow of €14.6 million, enough to fund future growth internally without additional capital raises.
The company carries no debt and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33x, compared with 30x for peer Idorsia, according to cash.ch.
