Citigroup has raised its price targets for corn, soybeans and wheat, citing rising supply risks tied to a strengthening El Niño weather pattern expected to peak by late 2026.
The bank’s updated targets place the highest-conviction risk on agricultural markets in a Super El Niño event, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating a greater than 90% probability of a very strong event by August 2026. NOAA further projects a 69% chance the episode will surpass all El Niño events recorded since 1950 during the October–December period.
Citi raised its three-month target for corn to $5.40 per bushel from a prior level, with a 12-month forecast set at $5.90 per bushel. Soybean targets were lifted to $12.75 per bushel for the near term and $13.25 per bushel for the year ahead. Wheat targets were increased to $7.25 per bushel in the short term and $7.75 per bushel over the next 12 months.
The bank’s assessment is based on its Production-at-Risk framework, which indicates that current market pricing understates potential downside to global agricultural output. Citi identified palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa and Australian wheat as the most weather-exposed commodities, with supply risks concentrated in Australia, India, Southeast Asia and parts of Brazil.
Additional factors supporting the bullish outlook include reduced yield expectations due to adverse weather, robust export demand, disruptions in the Black Sea region, elevated fertilizer and energy costs, and strong global biofuel demand. A strong El Niño is also expected to curtail palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, which could increase demand for soybean oil and drive higher crush margins for soybeans. Wheat remains the grain most exposed to combined weather and geopolitical risks, with hot and dry conditions across Europe already prompting downward revisions to production estimates.
