Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index is forecast to decline 1.0% to 36,600 points by the end of 2026, according to updated projections, before climbing 8.2% to 40,000 in 2027.
The latest outlook, based on a Reuters poll, marks an improvement from a May survey that had pegged end-2026 at 35,300 points. The index reached a record high this week, with year-to-date gains of roughly 16%.
Energy stocks have been the primary driver, advancing 45% this year, while the materials sector—including metal miners—has gained 26% amid elevated oil and gold prices. Financials, which represent 34% of the TSX’s composition, have risen nearly 20% in 2026 and now trade at an average of 15 times projected earnings, the highest valuation since 2010.
The gains come as Canada implements retaliatory tariffs totaling C$27.6 billion (US$19.9 billion) on U.S. goods, announced alongside the index’s record close. The measures follow recent trade policy shifts between the two nations.
Analysts note the TSX’s resilience despite near-term headwinds, with projections reflecting expectations of continued commodity strength and a rebound in broader market sentiment by 2027.
