Economists surveyed in the Central Bank’s weekly Focus report lowered their 2026 inflation and growth outlooks, while maintaining unchanged projections for interest rates and the exchange rate.
The median forecast for Brazil’s benchmark IPCA inflation index in 2026 fell to 5.01% from 5.02% in the prior week, according to the survey of roughly 100 institutions. For 2027, the inflation projection rose to 4.28% from 4.25%. The official 2026 inflation target is set at 3.00% with a tolerance range of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
GDP growth expectations for 2026 were reduced to 1.92% from 1.95%, while the 2027 growth outlook held steady at 1.50%. The IBGE is scheduled to release second-quarter GDP data on Tuesday.
The Selic benchmark interest rate is currently at 14.00%, and economists expect a 25-basis-point reduction at the Central Bank’s September meeting, leaving the 2026 and 2027 Selic projections unchanged at 13.75% and 12.00%, respectively.
The USD/BRL exchange rate forecast for year-end 2026 remained at R$ 5.20, while the 2027 projection held at R$ 5.30. Managed price inflation expectations for 2026 were steady at 4.69%, while the 2027 outlook dipped to 3.83% from 3.86%.
The current account deficit is projected at $60.0 billion for 2026 and $59.0 billion for 2027, unchanged from the prior week. The trade surplus outlook for 2026 was raised to $78.0 billion from $77.75 billion, with the 2027 surplus expected at $79.0 billion.
Foreign direct investment forecasts for 2026 increased to $79.73 billion from $79.46 billion, while the 2027 estimate edged down to $79.25 billion from $79.36 billion. Public net debt as a share of GDP is seen at 69.90% for 2026, unchanged, and 73.60% for 2027, up from 73.54%.
Separate data released last week showed the IPCA-15 inflation index fell 0.40% in August following a 0.06% rise in July, marking the first deflation in a year. The decline was driven by lower electricity, food, and transportation prices, pushing the 12-month rate below the target ceiling.
