Brazil’s Ministry of Finance maintained its 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast at 2.3% on Tuesday, unchanged from its prior projection, as the economy expanded 0.5% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months.
The first-quarter expansion was revised upward to 1.1% from an initial estimate, according to data released by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). The Ministry of Finance’s Secretaria de Política Econômica (SPE) noted in an informational note that the slowdown observed in the second quarter reflects the dissipation of public policy effects, which is being partially offset by lower borrowing costs.
For the third quarter, the SPE expects the deceleration to persist, forecasting continued weakness in economic activity. The outlook improves for the fourth quarter, with the secretariat anticipating a gradual recovery driven by cyclical components of the economy responding to the Central Bank’s monetary easing measures.
The Ministry of Finance’s projection for 2026 remains aligned with the government’s broader macroeconomic framework, signaling cautious optimism despite near-term headwinds.
