Bitcoin’s five-day surge extended into a ninth consecutive weekly gain, with BTC/USD reaching $79,550 before consolidating near $77,500. The cryptocurrency closed last week at $77,727 on Bitstamp, marking the first weekly candle close above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) since November 2025. The 50-week EMA, currently at $77,752, serves as a critical resistance level during bear-market cycles, with prior retests often preceding further declines.
The rally lifted Bitcoin’s month-to-date gains to 22%, positioning August 2024 as the strongest performance month for BTC since 2017. On-chain data from CryptoQuant showed short-term holder (STH) profitability rising to 11%, while long-term holders (LTH) moved into an 18.5% profit zone. New money entering at a cost basis of $73,000 now holds an average unrealized gain of 12.7%, narrowing the buffer against potential downside moves. Analysts highlighted the $68,700–$73,000 range as a key support zone, with a break below threatening to push recent buyers back into loss territory.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday will draw heightened attention, given his recent dovish leanings and the market’s sensitivity to liquidity signals. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 63.1% probability of the Fed maintaining its 3.50–3.75% target range at the September FOMC meeting. Prior to the event, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data—due Wednesday—will provide further insight into inflation trends, with consensus expecting a 0.1% monthly increase and a year-on-year cooling to 3.6%.
Macro liquidity dynamics also remain in focus after the U.S. Treasury announced plans to double its debt buyback operations to $4 billion per auction, a move that triggered a Bitcoin short squeeze and erased $3.1 billion in crypto short positions. Analysts at Mosaic Asset Company suggested the intervention signaled a shift toward yield curve control (YCC), a policy previously linked to currency debasement risks and elevated asset prices. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has long argued that YCC could drive Bitcoin toward six-figure valuations.
Institutional flows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products accelerated last week, with net inflows totaling $1.9 billion—the strongest weekly intake in nearly a decade. The momentum follows Bitcoin’s return to net profitability for all investor cohorts, with aggregate UTXO cost basis now at $73,000. Traders, however, remain cautious, noting that prior bear-market relief rallies have historically retraced sharply within weeks of breaking key resistance levels.
