Bitcoin recently moved above its 365‑day rolling simple moving average for the first time in 310 days, crossing near $80,900 on September 22.
Altcoin Pro research notes that in the five prior occasions when Bitcoin regained the 365‑day average after at least 90 days below it, the asset was higher 12 months later, with gains ranging from about 59% to over 1,400%; the largest increase occurred in 2012 when Bitcoin was still a niche asset.
The firm also identified two failed breakouts when shorter periods below the line were considered—July 2018 and March 2022—where Bitcoin fell roughly 27% and 59% within 90 days after crossing the average.
Analysts Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku say the September move is encouraging but stress that holding above the level is needed; they view the 200‑day average as a more important indicator, noting Bitcoin was about 19% above that measure before a modest dip in the past 36 hours.
The 200‑day average had risen to roughly $70,800 in Altcoin Pro’s calculations, while the 365‑day average remained closer to the market price and was still declining, reflecting its slower reaction to recent price changes.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s 50‑day average crossed above its 200‑day average on September 8, forming a golden cross; Altcoin Pro considers this signal more constructive because it follows a prolonged period below the 200‑day line rather than appearing near a market peak.
The next test, according to the founders, is whether the recent small selloff pushes Bitcoin back toward the 200‑day average level.
