Bernstein has upgraded three leading apparel and specialty retail stocks to Outperform, citing projected U.S. sales growth and expanding market share through 2030.
Adidas received a price target of €245 on the Frankfurt-listed ADS.GR and $132.50 on the OTC-listed ADDYY, with Bernstein forecasting a 7% compound annual growth rate in U.S. sales over the next four years. The firm projects the company’s U.S. market share rising from 3.5% to 4.3%, driven by momentum in lifestyle and running segments, wholesale distribution expansion, and casual footwear initiatives. Bernstein also noted record quarterly sales in Q2 2026, despite missing earnings per share estimates, and cited an upgrade to Outperform from RBC Capital.
Nike’s Outperform rating comes with a $68 price target, with Bernstein projecting U.S. gross merchandise value growth of 3% to 4% annually through 2030. The firm expects recovery to be supported by product innovation and renewed wholesale distribution across sporting goods, outdoor, and specialty running retailers. Potential upside is tied to a potential rebound for the Jordan brand if the 2027–28 product pipeline regains consumer appeal. The upgrade follows a recent downgrade to Underweight by JPMorgan and the announcement of the company’s Chief Accounting Officer resignation, effective September 4, 2026.
On Holding was assigned an Outperform rating and a $62 price target, with Bernstein projecting a 12% CAGR in sales through 2030 and U.S. market share increasing from 1.5% to 2.3%. Global sales are expected to grow in the upper single digits to low 20s percentage range, led by expansion in China and Asia. The firm highlighted On Holding’s lower market penetration and ongoing store expansion as key growth drivers. The upgrade follows reductions in wholesale shipment volumes for Q2 and Q3 2026 to manage inventory amid slowing demand, as well as price target cuts from UBS and Telsey after Q2 results.
Deckers Outdoor was maintained at Market-Perform with a $105 price target, with potential upside contingent on a recovery in U.S. Hoka demand and continued strength in Ugg’s casual footwear performance. Bernstein cautioned that innovation and competition risks for Hoka and Ugg, along with cost inflation and margin pressures, could weigh on performance. The firm noted that Deckers reported $1.02 billion in first-quarter revenue, beating consensus, but issued lower-than-expected second-quarter guidance, prompting price target reductions from Stifel and Truist Securities.
Lululemon was also kept at Market-Perform with a $145 price target, with Bernstein forecasting flat U.S. sales through 2030 and a decline in U.S. market share from 3.3% to 2.8% due to product challenges and intensifying competition from premium brands such as Alo and Vuori. The firm noted that Lululemon is preparing for Heidi O’Neill to assume the CEO role on September 8, 2026, while KeyBanc analysts cited weak U.S. sales trends and UBS lowered its price target, anticipating a potential reduction in full-year 2026 earnings guidance.
