Bernstein SocGen has reduced its price target for Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) to $350 from $450 while retaining an Outperform rating, citing expectations for Bitcoin to follow a standard four-year cycle.
The firm’s valuation adjustment comes as Strategy’s shares trade at $126.83, down 64% over the past year but up 22% in the last week. Bernstein SocGen’s move follows a broader reassessment of the company’s Bitcoin-linked exposure amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
Analysts project Bitcoin to recover to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and reach a potential peak of $300,000 by 2029, assuming a typical cycle trajectory. They note that approximately 60% of Bitcoin is held by price-insensitive entities capable of withstanding drawdowns of 50% or more.
The firm highlights the end of a 40-year trend of declining interest rates, which has increased sovereign debt burdens and elevated borrowing costs globally. With policymakers likely to prioritize currency debasement over fiscal austerity, scarce assets such as Bitcoin may benefit as investors seek protection against dilution. The expanding global on-ramps for institutional and retail investors, alongside a supportive regulatory environment, further underpin the outlook.
Strategy has earmarked $1.59 billion for potential Bitcoin acquisitions and treasury operations, introducing a new liquidity component labeled "USD Cash." The company also repurchased 288,930 shares of preferred stock following its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results.
Other analysts have taken varied stances on Strategy. Canaccord raised its target to $175 with a Buy rating, while Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target to $186 with an Overweight rating. H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating with a $325 target, and B.Riley adjusted its target downward to $155.
