American Airlines lowered its fourth-quarter 2026 capacity growth forecast by 110 basis points to 10.1%, according to a Bank of America report tracking weekly airline capacity changes.
The carrier also reduced its November growth projection by 300 basis points, while trimming its Atlantic growth outlook by 140 basis points to 1.8%. Pacific capacity growth was cut by 240 basis points to a decline of 2.9%, and total system growth for the quarter was lowered to 6.5% from 7.6% the prior week.
The revised figures place American Airlines ahead of Delta Air Lines, which reported a 3.2% system growth forecast for the same period, and United Airlines at 5.7%. Domestic capacity growth across the sector fell by 30 basis points to 3.7%.
United Airlines also adjusted its outlook, reducing domestic growth by 20 basis points to 9.6%. Alaska Air Group trimmed its growth forecast by 20 basis points to 3.6%, though it added 190 basis points to Latin America growth, leaving capacity still down 28.9%. Frontier Group Holdings cut its forecast by 150 basis points to 11.3%, while Southwest Airlines increased its growth projection by 20 basis points to 3.5% for the quarter and raised Latin America growth by 30 basis points to 12.6%.
Delta Air Lines reduced its Atlantic growth forecast by 60 basis points to 4.1%. The adjustments follow a year-over-year decline in TSA throughput data, with a trailing seven-day basis through August 23 showing a 3.7% decrease compared with a 3.0% drop the previous week.
