American Airlines reduced its domestic capacity growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 by 110 basis points, lowering the projection to 10.1%, according to Bank of America’s weekly airline capacity tracking report. The carrier also trimmed its November growth target by 300 basis points as part of the adjustment.
The airline cut its Atlantic capacity growth forecast by 140 basis points to 1.8%, while its Pacific growth projection was reduced by 240 basis points to a decline of 2.9%. Overall system capacity growth for the quarter was lowered to 6.5%, down from 7.6% the prior week.
Industry-wide domestic capacity growth for the fourth quarter of 2026 was also revised lower by 30 basis points to 3.7%, reflecting broader caution in the sector. Delta Air Lines adjusted its Q4 2026 growth to 3.2%, reducing its Atlantic forecast by 60 basis points to 4.1%. United Airlines trimmed its domestic growth by 20 basis points to 9.6%, while maintaining a Q4 2026 growth target of 5.7%.
Alaska Air Group lowered its domestic growth by 20 basis points to 3.6% but increased its Latin American growth forecast by 190 basis points, though capacity in the region remains down 28.9%. Frontier Group Holdings reduced its domestic forecast by 150 basis points to 11.3%. Southwest Airlines bucked the trend, adding 20 basis points to its growth between September and December, lifting its Q4 2026 target to 3.5% and raising its Latin American growth by 30 basis points to 12.6%.
Passenger traffic data showed a continued year-over-year decline, with TSA throughput down 3.7% as of August 23, compared with a 3.0% drop recorded the prior week.
