Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) reduced its full-year guidance by approximately 200 basis points at the midpoint during a presentation at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on Thursday, citing foreign exchange headwinds that translated to roughly a 100-basis-point constant-currency impact.
The revisions came as CFO Chris Cruz outlined a company navigating both near-term currency pressures and a continued strategy of accretive acquisitions. Shift4 also disclosed a new $300 million account-to-account (A2A) platform acquisition, with a $140 million upfront payment and the balance in contingent consideration. The deal is expected to close approximately 90 days after signing and is not included in the company’s current guidance.
On growth, Shift4’s payments-based revenue—which accounts for roughly three-fifths of the business—is expected to grow in the low 20s globally over time, with mid-teens growth in the Americas and high 27% to 28% in worldwide markets. Worldwide payments-based revenue grew more than 50% year-to-date. Quarterly organic growth on a constant-currency basis came in at about 9% in Q1 and accelerated to roughly 10.5% in Q2, a gain of 145 basis points. For Q3, the company called for 10% reported growth with organic growth in the high single digits, implying a second-half organic range of 9% to 13%.
Cruz defended the company’s valuation multiple, saying “This is not a sector that’s supposed to be running at a 0.5 PEG. This is not speculative junior gold.”
Tax-free shopping revenue is expected to grow in the mid-single digits, with Shift4’s market share estimated at 75% to 80%. “When you take tax-free shopping combined with payments and currency solutions like dynamic currency conversion, the tax-free shopping piece is one of one,” Cruz said.
Subscription and other revenue is anticipated to grow in the low double digits, while revenue synergies from the Global Blue deal are expected to reach $80 million beginning in 2027.
On capital allocation, Shift4 reported an incremental EBITDA-to-free-cash-flow conversion of roughly 60%. Hardware spending totaled about $140 million over the trailing 12 months. Pro forma net leverage stood at 3.7x and is expected to fall into the low 3s by year-end, within a long-term operating range not to exceed 3.75x on a sustained basis, targeting around 3.25x.
The company also addressed its balance sheet, noting a $633 million convertible maturity scheduled for August 2027, which has been pre-funded. The instrument carries a 50-basis-point running cost. Q2 share repurchases totaled approximately $20 million.
On alignment with merchants, Cruz emphasized that Shift4’s incentives are closely tied to payment processing uptime: “If the uptime is there and the merchant is making money and collecting those payments, we are aligned with revenue. If it is down, we are down.”
