The European Central Bank Governing Council decided on 10 September 2026 to increase its three main policy rates by 25 basis points. Effective 16 September, the deposit facility rate will be 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate 2.65% and the marginal lending facility rate 2.90%.
The move reflects ongoing inflationary pressure, which the ECB attributes in part to the conflict in the Middle East. The bank’s staff projections now see headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is projected at 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028.
Economic growth forecasts have been revised upward, with baseline estimates of 0.9% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028, reflecting stronger‑than‑expected resilience in the euro‑area economy. The ECB cautioned that the outlook remains highly uncertain, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
The asset purchase programmes (APP and PEPP) continue to shrink as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests principal repayments from maturing securities. The Governing Council also highlighted the availability of the Transmission Protection Instrument to address any disorderly market dynamics that could impair monetary‑policy transmission.
The ECB President will elaborate on the decision at a press conference scheduled for 14:45 CET.
