Develop Global Limited (DVP) outlined an aggressive growth trajectory at the Resources Rising Stars Gold Coast Conference on Wednesday, projecting steady-state copper-equivalent output of more than 50,000 tonnes annually and spodumene-equivalent production of 200,000 tonnes per year within two to three years.
The company, which carries a market capitalisation of roughly AUD 1.5 billion, reported last-twelve-months revenue of USD 196 million—up over 50 percent year-over-year—with analysts forecasting fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 61 percent. Shares traded at AUD 3.88 on Wednesday, up 42 percent over the past year.
Chief Executive Officer Bill told the conference that Develop Global’s three flagship assets—Woodlawn, Pioneer Dome, and Yitirrti—are each on track to reach steady-state production within the projected timeframe, underpinning a long-term EBITDA target of approximately AUD 1 billion.
"Our valuation range sits somewhere between four times and twelve times EBITDA," Bill said, noting that BHP’s acquisition of Oz Minerals commanded a 12-times EBITDA multiple.
At Woodlawn, the company’s copper-zinc mine in New South Wales, steady-state production was reached in the March quarter of 2024. The asset generates annual revenue of AUD 375 million against an operating cost base of around AUD 200 million, and operates on a 10-year mine plan that management aims to extend to 15 years within 12 months through infill drilling. Two drilling rigs are now active at the site.
Pioneer Dome, a lithium direct-shipping-ore project, is targeting first ore delivery to ship in the December quarter of 2024, with positive free cash flow expected by the same period. The project carries a capital expenditure of roughly AUD 30 million and an underground mine life of at least eight years. Management is targeting annual production of one million tonnes from underground operations, with DSO pricing in the AUD 450 to AUD 500-per-tonne range. The site sits 270 kilometres from port.
Yitirrti—the formerly Sulphur Springs base-metals project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region—began construction in September 2023. Three kilometres of underground tunnel development have been completed, and the project carries a capital expenditure budget of approximately AUD 450 million, funded in part by a contract with GR Engineering Services valued at AUD 275 million. Planned annual output includes 120,000 tonnes of zinc, 12,000 to 15,000 tonnes of copper, and about one million ounces of silver. Financial projections call for AUD 600 million in annual revenue against operating costs of AUD 250 million to AUD 260 million, with free cash flow expected in less than two years from production commencement.
In June 2024, Develop Global announced a AUD 575 million financing package from Trafigura, which includes a AUD 100 million refinancing of Woodlawn debt.
On the labour front, Bill described the current Australian mining workforce environment as the tightest in his 32-year career. Underground productivity in Australia has fallen 25 percent over the past year, and cost pressures are mounting across the sector. Gold producers reported cost increases exceeding 15 percent in August guidance updates, driven by rising consumable and input costs. A shortage of general managers and underground managers holding statutory tickets further constrains expansion.
On lithium demand, the CEO pointed to end-users such as BYD and CATL, which together represent 70 to 80 percent of the lithium market, as key downstream buyers supporting long-term offtake outlooks.
