OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast further
Organization revises down forecast for the third time this year, citing weaker economic outlook and energy transition pressures.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the third time this year, citing a weaker-than-expected economic outlook and accelerating energy transition pressures.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC projected that world oil demand will rise by 1.04 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 1.16 million bpd. The downward revision follows similar adjustments in May and June, reflecting persistent concerns over global economic growth and shifts in energy consumption patterns.
The cartel attributed the downgrade to "persistent downside risks to the global economy," including elevated inflation, tighter monetary policies in major economies, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. OPEC also highlighted the impact of structural changes in energy demand, such as the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources, which are expected to temper long-term oil consumption growth.
The report maintained its 2025 demand growth estimate at 1.24 million bpd, unchanged from the previous month. However, it warned that risks to this outlook remain skewed to the downside, particularly if economic conditions deteriorate further or if energy transition policies accelerate beyond current expectations.
OPEC’s latest projections contrast with those of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has consistently forecast stronger demand growth in recent months. The IEA’s June report estimated 2026 demand growth at 1.1 million bpd, slightly higher than OPEC’s revised figure.
Brent crude futures were little changed following the report, trading near $85 per barrel. Analysts noted that while OPEC’s revisions signal caution, they do not yet indicate a fundamental shift in the oil market’s supply-demand balance.
The cartel reiterated its commitment to maintaining market stability through coordinated production policies, though it did not specify whether additional supply adjustments would be required to support prices amid weakening demand growth expectations.
Sophie covers currency markets and central bank policy across Europe, with a focus on how rate decisions ripple through FX pairs. She has been tracking the ECB's policy path since the start of the current easing cycle.
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