Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti expects the 5% per‑quarter redemption cap on mature evergreen funds to stay in place until at least 2028. When Partners Group announced the restriction in June, its shares fell 16% in a single session.
The evergreen funds still deliver a strong long‑term track record, with net‑of‑fees returns of 9‑9.5% per year. However, the 2022 interest‑rate rise has eroded performance relative to historic levels, the firm’s 10‑12% net‑return goal and newer evergreen funds launched after the rate hike.
Venditti attributes the underperformance of mature funds to a high allocation to assets acquired before the rate surge at elevated multiples, creating legacy exposure in some portfolios.
Partners Group now trades at a price‑to‑earnings multiple of 14.6×, the lowest in years, which the analyst says reflects expectations of slower growth. Historical assets‑under‑management (AUM) growth averaged about 14% annually from 2007 to 2025. Forecasts for 2027‑2029 are revised to 4%, 8% and 10% respectively, after a modest 2% growth projected for 2026.
The analyst expects the full resolution of these historic issues to take time, pressuring mid‑term AUM growth below management’s targets and adding strain from rising interest rates on private‑market firms. Consequently, Venditti trims estimates for fee margins and performance income and lowers the target price from CHF 940 to CHF 860, while maintaining a "Hold" rating.
Despite the commentary, the stock rose 0.9% on Thursday to CHF 671.40. The company’s dividend yield stands at 6.9%, and management has indicated it will continue its long‑standing dividend policy.
