UBS has upgraded Geely Automotive Holdings Ltd. to Buy from Neutral, citing accelerating export growth and revised earnings forecasts for 2026-2028.
The bank raised its price target to HK$28.00 from HK$20.00, based on a 10x multiple of estimated 2027 earnings, down from a prior 12x multiple of 2026 estimates. This valuation implies a 52% upside to current levels. UBS also increased its earnings estimates for 2026-2028 by approximately 30%, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance.
Geely reported first-half 2026 revenue of US$97.25 billion, falling short of the US$103.47 billion forecast by 6.01%, but gross margin improved to 17.9% from 16.2% a year earlier. Export growth has been a key driver, with year-over-year shipments surging 157% in the first half of 2026—the highest among major automakers.
UBS expects Geely to export 1 million units in 2026 and 1.5 million in 2027, supported by rising demand across ASEAN, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. Management targets two-thirds of total volume from external markets, a strategy reinforced by recent joint ventures with Renault in Korea and Brazil, and Ford in Spain.
China remained the world’s largest automotive exporter in 2025, shipping 7.10 million units, a 21% year-over-year increase. Geely’s export performance aligns with broader industry trends, though its current P/E ratio of 10.47 remains below the sector average.
