UBS has upgraded its rating on Fluence Energy to Neutral from Sell, citing improving long-term prospects for battery energy storage systems despite a recent earnings shortfall and revised profitability outlook.
The Swiss bank raised its price target to $12 from $9, while maintaining a cautious stance on the stock, which trades at $10.86, down 45% year-to-date. Analyst Jon Windham noted robust demand drivers, including new hybrid solar-storage installations, retrofits of existing solar plants, and growing data center power requirements.
The upgrade follows a third-quarter report that missed Wall Street expectations. Fluence Energy reported revenue of $649.8 million, below the $806.2 million consensus, and adjusted earnings per share of negative $0.24, compared with an expected positive $0.02. The company attributed the miss to production delays at new manufacturing facilities, which deferred sales into later periods.
UBS also revised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts, projecting losses of $12 million in fiscal 2026, $108 million in 2027, and $115 million in 2028. The revisions reflect a shift in revenue recognition from fiscal 2026 to 2027. Despite the near-term headwinds, UBS projects a 32% sales increase for the current fiscal year and a 22% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030.
Morgan Stanley maintained an Equalweight rating on the stock but lowered its price target to $15 from $16, estimating fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.02 billion and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $7 million. GLJ Research, meanwhile, downgraded Fluence Energy to Hold from Buy, setting a price target of $12.89.
Fluence Energy’s contract backlog stands at $6.4 billion, though GLJ Research expressed concerns about the company’s ability to convert these agreements into realized revenue.
