UBS has revised upward its oil price forecasts for Brent crude, projecting year-end levels at $95 a barrel—up from a previous estimate of $85—while maintaining a moderately constructive outlook despite elevated geopolitical risks. The bank’s strategist, Giovanni Staunovo, cited recent strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure and Iranian threats as near-term catalysts for upward pressure, though uncertainty remains tied to Middle East conflict dynamics and the pace of Gulf production and demand recovery.
The forecast adjustments reflect a broader tightening in global crude inventories, which fell by 150 million barrels over the past two months, driven by reduced exports from key producers including the Middle East, Russia, Mexico, the North Sea, and Brazil. Brent crude prices surged to over $100 a barrel on the day of publication, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to supply disruptions. UBS continues to assume a $4 discount for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) relative to Brent.
Staunovo emphasized that while risks to prices remain skewed to the upside, the bank’s outlook remains moderately constructive. The forecasts include $85 for mid-2027, $90 for March 2027 (up from $80), and $80 for September 2027, unchanged from prior projections.
