UBS upgraded Geely Automotive Holdings Ltd. to Buy from Neutral, raising the price target to HK$28.00 from HK$20.00, citing accelerating overseas growth and revised earnings estimates.
The Swiss bank now values the stock at 10 times its 2027 estimated earnings, implying a 52% upside from current levels. The previous HK$20 target was based on 12 times 2026 earnings. Geely’s shares trade at a trailing P/E of 10.47.
UBS increased its earnings forecasts for 2026–2028 by roughly 30%, reflecting stronger-than-expected export momentum. First-half 2026 revenue reached $97.25 billion, missing estimates by 6.01%, though gross margin improved to 17.9% from 16.2% a year earlier. Revenue rose 35% year-over-year.
Export growth was particularly pronounced, with overseas shipments surging 157% in the first half of 2026—the fastest among major automakers. UBS projects Geely will export 1 million units in 2026 and 1.5 million in 2027. Management’s long-term target is for two-thirds of total volume to originate from overseas markets, including ASEAN, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.
The upgrade follows Geely’s announcement of joint ventures with Renault in Korea and Brazil, and with Ford in Spain. China maintained its position as the world’s largest auto exporter in 2025, shipping 7.10 million units—a 21% year-over-year increase.
