U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Thursday after the Labor Department released its August non‑farm payrolls report. The 10‑year Treasury yield, which was trading at 4.746% before the data, climbed to 4.823% following the release.
The employment report showed an increase of 162,000 jobs, nearly three times the consensus forecast of 55,000. The surprise gain pushed the market’s probability of a September rate hike down to roughly 50%, according to strategy notes.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking at a Reuters NEXT event, indicated a preference for holding rates steady if the current disinflation trajectory continues. In contrast, former Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned at the Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers still have work to do to anchor inflation near the 2% target.
Crude oil prices remained above $90 a barrel, supported by recent military strikes between U.S. forces and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz that disrupted commercial vessel traffic. The higher oil price, together with robust corporate bond issuance from technology firms funding AI infrastructure, has increased competition for Treasury demand.
Strategy analysts cautioned that the 10‑year yield could breach the 5.0% threshold if upward pressure persists. The move comes amid broader market dynamics, including elevated corporate bond spreads and ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to shape risk sentiment.
