Gold’s outlook improved on Thursday after Truist Securities upgraded the metal to neutral from less attractive, citing stabilizing real interest rates, sustained central bank purchases and a softer U.S. dollar.
Analysts led by Keith Lerner highlighted that real Treasury yields have stopped rising in recent weeks and are poised to fall further after the U.S. Treasury doubled buyback sizes for long-duration debt. The shift follows softer U.S. economic data, including cooling inflation and weaker payroll growth, which has reinforced expectations for a more cautious Federal Reserve policy stance.
Technical momentum also turned supportive as the price of gold moved above its 200-day moving average, easing downside pressure. Central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves, while the U.S. dollar has retreated from recent highs, adding to the constructive backdrop.
Gold remains roughly 15% below its record levels reached earlier this year, but Truist noted that the combination of lower real yields, central bank demand and a weaker dollar now supports a more balanced assessment of the market. The upgrade reflects a recalibration of risks following a period of heightened volatility driven by shifting rate expectations and currency movements.
