Signs of recovery are mounting in the Swiss chocolate industry after two years of stress driven by record cocoa prices, with analysts at Vontobel forecasting a possible inflection point.
Cocoa prices have pulled back significantly from their 2024 peak above 10,000 pounds per tonne and there are emerging indications of strengthening demand. Vontobel analysts wrote in a Wednesday study that "we believe the trough in sales volumes is behind us," though they cautioned the recovery remains in its early stages.
The crisis was triggered by a historic surge in cocoa prices. Mis-harvests in West Africa, plant diseases and aging trees constricted supply, while speculation on commodity markets amplified the move. Manufacturers including Lindt & Sprüngli passed costs on to consumers, raising prices cumulatively by 25% to 50% since 2024, which dampened demand as shoppers increasingly turned to cheaper own-label brands.
Data from Chocosuisse illustrates the hit to the Swiss sector. In 2025, domestic chocolate sales volumes fell 7.9%, with exports declining 9.3%. Revenue rose 11.8% on higher prices, while per-capita chocolate consumption dropped 2.7%.
Conditions are now easing. Cocoa trades around 4,500 pounds per tonne — roughly 60% below the peak, yet still double the historical average. Global cocoa grinding, a key leading indicator for chocolate demand, grew in the second quarter of 2026 for the first time in six consecutive quarters of declines.
Barry Callebaut provided a concrete signal. The Swiss chocolate manufacturer reported a 5.7% increase in sales volumes in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025/26, the first volume growth in two years.
At Lindt & Sprüngli, management is looking for a return to volume expansion in 2027. First-half 2026 organic revenue rose 4.3%, driven almost entirely by price increases of 11.8%; sales volumes remain under pressure.
Vontobel warned the crisis is not fully behind the industry. An unusually strong El Niño is expected to persist through this year and next, potentially damaging West African harvests through higher temperatures and reduced rainfall. Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon account for roughly three-quarters of global cocoa production, and shortfalls in the region cannot easily be offset by other growing areas, leaving prices vulnerable to further volatility.
Barry Callebaut nevertheless dismissed the likelihood of a repeat of the 2023–24 cocoa crisis. Chief financial officer Peter Vanneste pointed in July to higher cocoa stocks and noted the market enters the new harvest season with a surplus rather than the deficits that characterized previous years.
