A joint survey by UBS and the CFA Society Switzerland released on Wednesday shows Swiss analysts revising their short‑term outlook for inflation and interest rates sharply upward in September, while still maintaining a positive view of the economy over the next six months.
The UBS‑CFA economic sentiment index fell 9.5 points from 12.1 in August to 2.6 in September. Although the index remains above zero for the third consecutive month, the drop follows a larger swing in July when the index moved from –25 to +10 points.
Analysts’ assessment of the current economic situation also improved. In August, 91.2% described the Swiss economy as “normal.” By September, roughly 22% rated it as “good,” the highest share since 2024, lifting the net balance to 17.9 points.
A notable shift occurred in expectations for short‑term rates. In August, none of the respondents anticipated a rise in the Swiss policy rate. In September, one‑third now expect higher short‑term rates, pushing the balance from –6.1 points to +33.3 points. In August, 86% still saw the SNB’s policy rate at 0% for the next monetary‑policy decision, with an unchanged rate considered likely through mid‑2027.
Long‑term rate expectations moved in the same direction. In August, only 21.9% foresaw an increase in long‑term Swiss rates, while three‑quarters expected them to stay flat. In September, 41.3% now expect a rise and just 48% anticipate unchanged rates, raising the balance to 30.7 points from 18.8.
Inflation expectations also rose sharply. About 49% of analysts now expect Swiss inflation to increase, up from just under 24% in August, sending the balance to 43.6 points from 11.7. Comparable expectations in the euro zone and the United States hover around 70% for higher inflation.
Despite the short‑term risks, the three‑year inflation forecast for Switzerland remains modest at 1.2%, only slightly above the 1.1% forecast in June, with roughly 70% of analysts believing inflation will stay within the SNB’s 0‑2% target band.
Growth expectations have become marginally more optimistic. Analysts now project a three‑year GDP expansion of 1.5%, up from 1.3% in June.
The survey also captured a deteriorating view of the United States. The share of analysts expecting a slowdown in the U.S. economy rose from 52.9% in August to 60.3% in September, driving the net balance to –51.3 points. Skepticism toward the euro zone increased as well, with about 45% foreseeing a slowdown.
Equity sentiment stayed positive. The expectation balance for the Swiss Market Index (SMI) climbed to 38.0 points from 33.3, while the S&P 500 balance rose to 23.6 points from 18.2. Optimism for gold was strongest, with nearly 59% expecting further price gains and the balance reaching 49.3 points, up from 42.4. By contrast, oil outlook turned negative, with the balance slipping to –23.0 points from +18.9.
The questionnaire was conducted between 17 and 24 September and was answered by 78 financial analysts.
