SpaceX may require between $50 billion and $130 billion to construct a standalone mobile network, including spectrum acquisition costs, according to an estimate from Bernstein. The investment bank’s analysis suggests the total outlay could range from $15 billion to $80 billion if spectrum costs are excluded, with a base-case scenario for a national build estimated at roughly $70 billion.
The projected expenditure reflects the scale of infrastructure required, with Bernstein modeling scenarios ranging from a bare-bones metro network covering about 70% of the U.S. population to a premium network comparable to established telecom carriers. A middle scenario, described as comparable to Sprint’s historical network, would require approximately 57,000 macro sites over an eight-year build period.
Analysts led by Douglas Harned emphasized the complexity of the direct-to-device business, calling it "the one business that we have viewed as the most difficult." However, they noted a positive outlook for SpaceX’s stock based on progress in its launch capabilities, orbital data centers, and Starlink broadband services. Bernstein also highlighted the potential for spectrum acquisition to reduce costs, estimating that securing 10 MHz of low-band spectrum could lower the number of required sites by about 30%. The bank described such an acquisition as "not off the table."
SpaceX’s plans to begin launching its Mobile V2 satellite constellation in mid-2027 add urgency to the timeline. Bernstein suggested the middle national scenario could be credible "at the right price point," while also noting the company has indicated a terrestrial buildout remains possible.
The estimate comes amid interest from AST Spacemobile, which received a 30-day special temporary FCC approval in August to test supplementary coverage on spectrum being auctioned by Grain. Elon Musk responded on X, formerly Twitter, to a Bloomberg report about SpaceX’s potential interest in the Grain spectrum, calling it "not true."
