Soybean futures fall ahead of USDA supply report

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade declined on Monday as investors positioned ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, due later in the week.

The most-active November contract fell 0.4% to $10.85 per bushel by 09:00 ET, extending losses from Friday’s close. Market participants cited expectations that the report may revise domestic production or export forecasts, which often drive short-term price volatility in agricultural commodities.

Analysts at major brokerages noted that recent weather conditions in key growing regions, including the U.S. Midwest and Brazil, have supported expectations for a robust harvest. However, lingering concerns over global demand, particularly from China, continue to weigh on sentiment. The USDA’s estimates will provide updated benchmarks for domestic stocks, exports, and crush margins, which are critical for pricing in both physical and futures markets.

The decline follows a broader softening in grain markets, with corn and wheat also under pressure amid similar pre-report positioning. Traders will closely scrutinize any adjustments to acreage or yield estimates, as well as revisions to ending stocks, which could signal tighter or looser supply conditions for the 2024/25 marketing year.

The USDA’s report is scheduled for release on Friday at 12:00 ET, with market consensus pointing toward a neutral-to-bullish tilt based on current trade estimates.