Silver prices have retraced sharply from January’s peak of over $121 an ounce, falling 55% to $54.77 by mid-July after a 20% rebound in August. The pullback followed a 148% surge in 2025, leaving investors questioning whether the decline marks the end of the downtrend or merely a corrective phase.
According to technical analysis, the first-half bear market may have concluded at the July low. The four-hour chart structure of the decline from near $122 to $54.77 is interpreted as a W-X-Y double zigzag correction, with each wave comprising simple (a)-(b)-(c) zigzags. Within the final wave Y, the motive waves display a five-wave impulsive pattern labeled 1-2-3-4-5, while wave 3 of (c) of Y further subdivides into i-ii-iii-iv-v sub-waves.
The analysis indicates that the decline from January to July has been completed if silver remains above $54.77. Under this scenario, further upside toward a new all-time high is considered likely in the coming months, provided the metal holds above the mid-year low. The projection contrasts with the performance in the first half of the year, when silver and gold declined despite geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation.
