Russia is evaluating plans to intensify conventional ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv’s city center and critical infrastructure in other Ukrainian cities, according to four sources with ties to the Kremlin. The assessment follows the collapse of peace negotiations and signals Moscow’s conclusion that further escalation is necessary, with some officials privately indicating that tactical nuclear options remain a last resort.
The potential shift in military strategy comes amid a broader deterioration in diplomatic channels. CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow on Tuesday, meeting with Russian intelligence counterparts but not President Vladimir Putin, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Ratcliffe’s trip follows a series of failed diplomatic efforts, including stalled Geneva negotiations in February, the Alaska summit between Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump last August, and meetings between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Philippines in July.
Russia’s Perm refinery, the country’s seventh-largest by processing volume, suspended operations on August 22 after a Ukrainian drone attack on August 21. The incident is part of a summer surge in Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and logistics networks, escalating economic pressure on Moscow. Putin publicly warned on August 22 that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian economic infrastructure would provoke a response targeting Ukraine’s most sensitive sectors.
The Kremlin’s rhetoric has grown more aggressive in recent weeks. Peskov stated that all contacts between Russian and U.S. security services have been conducted through intelligence channels, denying any direct meetings with Putin. Trump, in a radio interview, described Ratcliffe’s visit as "semi-routine" but suggested progress could emerge from ongoing efforts to end the war.
Analysts at the Atlantic Council cited a U.S. intelligence assessment indicating that Russia may prepare a limited attack on a NATO member country within months, though no specific targets or timelines were provided. The Moscow Times reported on August 20 that there was no immediate prospect of resuming formal peace talks.
Global markets reacted cautiously to the escalation risks. Brent crude, a key benchmark for Russian oil exports, fell more than 3% to around $88.58 per barrel on Tuesday, extending declines from the session’s settle.
