Russia is preparing for its first parliamentary election since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, with voting scheduled over three days from Sept. 18 to 20. The tightly controlled contest in the 450-seat State Duma is widely expected to deliver another dominant victory for United Russia, but outside observers are watching turnout and margins for signs of public frustration after more than four-and-a-half years of war.
United Russia, which currently holds 310 seats, needs at least 300 to keep its constitutional supermajority without relying on other parties. The lower house will serve through 2031, carrying into the next presidential election and potentially playing a role in any major political transition.
Opinion polls show United Russia comfortably ahead of its rivals, though the party's approval ratings have slipped to a four-year low. The decline coincides with a nationwide fuel shortage and a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on logistics and delivery warehouses across Russia. All parties on the ballot have publicly pledged loyalty to President Vladimir Putin; the liberal Yabloko party was the only registered group opposing the war but was barred from the vote last month by Russia's top court.
Economists point to deepening fiscal strains. Sergei Guriev, dean and professor of economics at London Business School, said the economy has stopped growing and the budget is under pressure, forcing tax increases that are deeply unpopular. Even with higher revenues, Russia is running a significant budget deficit. "It's not something that will break the Russian economy, but it's creating more and more unhappiness," Guriev said.
Tensions within the economic establishment have surfaced openly. The Kremlin reportedly dismissed Andrei Klepach from the state-controlled development bank VEB after he presented a report warning that Russia could not win a prolonged war of attrition and forecasting a major social crisis. Putin previously clashed with German Gref, CEO of Sberbank, after Gref issued a recession warning at an economic forum in September 2025.
Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil facilities and logistics hubs this year, aiming to raise the cost of the war. A recent spike in global oil prices — driven in part by U.S.–Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz — has provided a temporary windfall for Moscow's war chest, but analysts say it will not solve deeper fiscal problems.
"It's a very temporary boost," said Katia Glod, deputy head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre. She warned that even with higher revenue, the Kremlin cannot sufficiently prop up its budget to sustain the high contractual salaries promised to recruited soldiers.
Speculation has also grown about a potential fresh mobilization after the election. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied plans for compulsory conscription. Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a special envoy for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, noted recent intelligence suggesting preparations were underway, adding that large-scale protest activity inside Russia has been notably absent — a trend he described as "really worrying."
On the battlefield, Russian forces continue pressing in the eastern Donetsk region. Guriev said that if the front line freezes with Russian gains intact, Putin may conclude that time is on his side for negotiations. "Eventually this year, Putin may start reckoning maybe it's time to negotiate in earnest," he said.
