U.S. gasoline prices are climbing toward new yearly peaks, with traders on prediction market platform Kalshi assigning a 71% probability that the national average will surpass $4.60 per gallon in 2026. The move follows West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumping 3.5% to more than $103 a barrel, driven in part by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran that have raised doubts about the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gasoline peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21, according to AAA's national average. On Kalshi, speculators also place 57% odds that prices will top $4.80 a gallon, with slightly more than a 40% chance they cross $5.00 — a level last reached in June 2022 when the national average briefly exceeded $5 a gallon. Kalshi gas-price contracts are resolved using AAA data.
The oil rally has broadened expectations beyond this year's peak. Traders on the platform assign 50-50 odds that gasoline will remain above $4.25 per gallon on Election Day, Nov. 3, signaling anticipation that elevated energy costs will persist through the fall.
Geopolitical risk remains the primary catalyst. The Strait of Hormuz carries a critical share of global oil supply, and any disruption from the mounting U.S.-Iran standoff would tighten already firm markets. Monday's gain in WTI pushed crude above $100 a barrel for the second time this year, reinforcing the link between Middle East friction and retail fuel costs.
CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
