Prediction markets are experiencing a surge in adoption as the convergence of the NFL season and midterm elections brings increased trading volume. In 2024, event contract exchanges gained mainstream attention with trades tied to the presidential election. The start of the NFL season in September 2025 marked a significant increase in prediction market trading volume, which has continued to grow.
This year, prediction markets are bigger than ever, with daily notional trading volume consistently in the billions. Two dominant incumbents and a host of smaller exchanges are vying to capture a share of the market. The fall season is expected to be crucial for newer platforms, with the NFL cycle potentially being a make-or-break period for many.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen record trading volumes and are expanding their offerings. Polymarket debuted an advertisement featuring basketball icon LeBron James, former New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, and former Yankee Derek Jeter. Kalshi experienced a record $2.3 billion in volume traded on the first day of college football and unveiled a feature for speculators to track their performance from the previous NFL season.
Despite these developments, platforms are facing regulatory challenges. States across the country are battling in court with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the regulation of sports-related event contracts. Polymarket's president of sports business development, Ari Borod, stated that they operate pursuant to CFTC regulations and will continue to do so.
New entrants like Rothera and Novig are also capitalizing on the fall events. Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood, saw volumes boom after going online in time for the FIFA World Cup. Novig, which only lists sports event contracts, started an NFL marketing campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney.
ProphetX, which launched in June focusing on sports-related event contracts, has also been preparing for the fall. The platform has revamped its consumer platform and is focusing on boosting liquidity during the NFL season. ProphetX co-founder and CEO Dean Sisun expects revenue to double from June to August and aims for a four to five times increase by the end of the year.
Kalshi has launched several tools for the midterm elections, including a midterm elections hub in July. The platform is also working on an in-person event for election night and contemplating the best way for traders and viewers to see how odds across races are changing as results pour in. Benjamin Freeman, head of politics growth at Kalshi, noted that there is a much longer runway to plan for the midterms compared to the 2024 presidential election.
Despite the majority of trading volume coming from sports contests, platforms are working to remind the public that they are more than just sports. Robinhood's vice president and general manager for futures and prediction markets, JB Mackenzie, stated that prediction markets evolve based upon what people want to be trading and what is in the news cycle.
