The British pound firmed against the dollar, reaching 1.3545, up 0.15% as of 03:48 ET. The euro edged higher to 1.1628, a 0.02% gain, while the EUR/GBP pair held near its recent low, with ING forecasting a trading range of 0.8550‑0.8600 before a possible rise toward 0.87 in the fourth quarter.
Short‑dated U.S. Treasury yields fell five basis points, and market pricing assigns a 50% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. In the United Kingdom, money markets continue to price up to 60 basis points of Bank of England tightening.
Ahead of the U.S. non‑farm payrolls release, consensus expects an addition of 55,000 jobs, with a "whisper" figure near 30,000, and unemployment projected at 4.1%. ING maintains a 25‑basis‑point Fed hike call.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s recent remarks and a prior hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have kept attention on U.S. policy. In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is slated to speak at 10:50 a.m. CET, and the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel survey will be released later in the day. New Chancellor John Healey is expected to deliver his first major speech early next week.
The mixed backdrop—softening dollar pressure against a backdrop of modest Fed expectations and lingering gilt jitters—has left the pound in a slightly positive stance.
