Northwest European gasoline refining margins reached $46.74 per barrel on Thursday, the highest level since mid-2022, driven by a sharp decline in inventories across the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub.
Gasoline stocks in the ARA hub fell to 752,000 metric tons, the lowest in nearly five years, while independent gasoline stocks dropped by approximately 14% during the week. Trading activity totaled 13,000 metric tons of gasoline E5 barges and 16,000 metric tons of gasoline E10 barges.
Analysts attributed the margin surge to a combination of higher exports and reduced imports, compounded by rising Rhine river water levels that eased logistical constraints. Lars van Wageningen of Insights Global noted that the stock decline reflected stronger regional demand and limited replenishment flows.
Jorge Molinero of Sparta Commodities highlighted that the gradual normalization of Middle East naphtha supply is unwinding the war-related premium observed in late July. He added that arbitrage opportunities to Asia remained structurally viable despite the recent supply adjustments.
E5 barge transactions were executed by Trafigura, Aramco, and Equinor, with buyers including MB Energy and Vitol. E10 barge trades involved Exxon Mobil and Shell as sellers, with Varo, MB Energy, and BP among the counterparties.
The margin increase underscores tightening regional gasoline balances, with refiners benefiting from both lower inventory overhangs and supportive export demand.
