Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of ArcelorMittal SA with an overweight rating, citing stronger trade protections in Europe and North America as key drivers for a steel market rebound.
The bank assigned a €70 price target to the Amsterdam-listed shares, representing roughly 14% upside from the €61.16 closing price on August 20. For the U.S.-listed ADR, Morgan Stanley set a $82 target, also implying about 14% upside from the $72.20 close on the same date.
ArcelorMittal’s steel shipments are projected to rise to 54 million tonnes in 2025, 54.5 million tonnes in 2026, and 57.3 million tonnes in 2027, according to Morgan Stanley’s model. The bank forecasts EBITDA to climb from $6.54 billion in 2025 to $8.12 billion in 2026 and $11.12 billion in 2027, driven by improved pricing power under tighter trade regimes.
Morgan Stanley expects the benefits of strengthened European trade policies to materialize fully in earnings by 2027-28, as safeguards against imported steel reduce competitive pressure. The bank highlighted ArcelorMittal’s disciplined decarbonization strategy and potential upside from faster demand recovery in key end markets as additional tailwinds.
Downside risks identified include weaker Chinese steel demand, which could increase export volumes and weigh on global prices, as well as potential compression in steel spreads from renewed end-market weakness. Unexpected large-scale investments in new regions were also flagged as a possible risk to the outlook.
